EU short-term outlook for poultry remains strong
Expansion is expected to slow down for the second half of the year, bringing annual growth to 1,5% and stabilisation is likely for 2019. The European Commission said it expected exports to grow moderately on top of the recovery registered in the second half of last year. They rose by 8% year on year between January and April, mainly due to more exports to the Philippines, where the bird flu ban had reduced exports the previous year.
Animal health issues that have dogged Brazil, leading to the withdrawal of export authorisations from 20 Brazilian plants by the EU, has had a substantial effect. Poultry meat imports from Brazil fell by 45% in the first four months of this year, shrinking its share from 50% to 33%. EU consumption per capita is also expected to rise slightly, but steadily, after stagnating in 2017 due to tight supplies to 24,1kg in 2018 and 24,3 kg in 2019.